Status report on plug-in electric vehicles and plug-in electric hybrids
The plug-in electric vehicle is one of the fundamental components of creating a new energy economy in the U.S. and worldwide. The development and production of electric vehicles (EVs) for mainstream consumption will lead to a significant change in the transportation and energy industries. The replacement of gas stations with electric re-charging stations at homes and on the road is in the near future. Furthermore, the steep rise in oil price this summer, in combination with a growing global awareness of the energy and environmental challenges ahead, has served to ignite the development of a plug-in electric vehicle manufacturing industry in the U.S. and abroad.
Electric vehicles are a major area of interest to an incredibly wide variety of stakeholders. Major car manufacturers, utilities, governments, technology start-ups, and individuals have all demonstrated and expressed a strong commitment towards producing electric vehicles for mainstream consumption. President-Elect Obama has made the development of electric vehicles one of the signature components of his proposed stimulus bill. There is a strong need in the U.S. for a revamped and reconstructed transportation infrastructure. The plug-in electric vehicle represents an incredible opportunity to create a new transportation system that is efficient, robust, and sustainable. However, the current situation is still a mash-up of technologies, ideas, and innovations. A number of trends are emerging and the barriers are becoming more defined. Despite the current economic recession and the drop-off in oil price, large-scale production of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and plug-in electric hybrids (PHEVs) from major car manufacturers appears imminent within the next two to four years.
What are the plug-in plans of the major U.S. and international car manufacturers?
The major U.S. car manufacturers appear to be pursuing a course towards producing more hybrid vehicles with a goal of eventually manufacturing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles for mass consumption. International manufacturers appear to be more focused on producing pure electric plug-in vehicles. In general, U.S. manufacturers are definitively behind in offering plug-in electric vehicles (pure electric and/or hybrid). Financial constraints, the current economy, lack of developed technology, and an inadequate U.S. supply chain for plug-in electric vehicle parts are all major barriers. Both U.S. and international manufacturers have begun to form strategic partnerships within the growing plug-in electric industry with the goal of developing and establishing a robust supply chain. In terms of technology trends, the primary energy storage device being developed and used in PEVs and PHEVs continues to be a lithium-ion battery.
The following is an overview of the efforts of current U.S. in comparison to international car manufacturers:
United States
General Motors is planning to begin producing its first plug-in electric vehicle for mass consumption in November 2010. The car is being built with an electric battery mileage of approximately 40 miles. In addition, the car will feature a six to seven gallon gas tank providing the car an overall range of approximately 400 miles before refuel.
General Motors plans to manufacture their own lithium-ion batteries in lieu of forming a strategic partnership with an independent energy-storage company. The batteries will be recharged via a 110-volt household outlet or a 220-volt outlet. Recharge times are estimated to be 6.5 hours for a 110-volt recharge and 3 hours for 220-volt recharge. The estimated price range of the vehicle is in the $30,000 - $40,000 price range with the price initially starting off at the upper-end. The high-price of the car, lack of electrical vehicle manufacturing experience and an undefined supply chain are significant challenges to address for GM.
Ford has made significant inroads in developing hybrid vehicles but remains several years away from offering plug-in electric vehicles. The company plans to offer both plug-in electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the next four years and recently announced that it would offer a small, plug-in electric vehicle in 2011. The plug-in electric vehicle would have a range of 100 miles per charge and be powered by a lithium-ion battery. In terms of its supply chain for plug-in vehicles, this January, Ford entered into a strategic alliance with Magna International, a major Canadian auto parts supplier. Magna has proven that it can engineer Ford cars to run on battery power and the new alliance will increase Ford’s ability to quickly begin producing plug-in electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Chrysler faces the greatest difficulties in producing plug-in electric vehicles. While the company announced its intentions to begin selling a plug-in electric vehicle by 2010, no further details regarding the car have been forthcoming. The company plans to have four plug-in electric vehicles available by 2013. However, the combination of financial constraints and the lack of EV manufacturing experience are significant barriers towards development that the company must address.
International
Toyota has a number of initiatives related to plug-in electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, and retains a significant advantage in producing both types of plug-in vehicles due to its wealth of experience and tremendous success in manufacturing hybrid vehicles. As the largest producer of hybrid vehicles in the world, Toyota has established a reliable battery supply for production through a partnership with Panasonic. The current hybrids in production by Toyota use nickel metal-hydride batteries; however, Toyota and Panasonic plan to add a separate line at the assembly plant to produce lithium-ion batteries for future plug-in electric vehicles.
The company plans to lease its first-generation of plug-in electric vehicles to fleet operators in order to measure performance before pursuing high-volume sales, and recently announced that it will begin delivering 500 plug-in hybrids with lithium-ion batteries at some point in 2009 (Bloomberg News). In addition, Toyota announced that it plans to offer a pure electric plug-in vehicle to U.S. customers by 2012. The planned vehicle will have an estimated range of 50 miles.
In addition, a number of small companies have begun offering conversion services for current Toyota hybrid owners to make their vehicles plug-in capable. The trials and successes of plug-in conversion companies is likely to create a small ‘electric conversion’ industry due to the large number of hybrid vehicles that Toyota and other car manufactures plan to produce in the next five to ten years. A small indicator of the potential of this industry is the recent ComEd purchase of ten converted plug-in hybrid electric vehicles out of ComEd’s overall purchase of fifty Toyota hybrids. ComEd plans to use the vehicles for its meter readers. It will be interesting to see if other utilities decide to explore the ComEd route.
Renault-Nissan has begun signing electric vehicle and infrastructure deals with countries, U.S. states, and cities throughout the world. While the provisions of these electric vehicle and infrastructure agreements have differed from deal to deal, the basic Nissan offering has remained the same: a pure electric vehicle with a range of 100 miles that will plug into local recharging stations provided by a local government, utility, or business.
Renault-Nissan EV infrastructure partnerships
Better Place - Partnerships for Israel, Denmark, and Portugal
EDF Utility Company – Partnerships for France and the City of Yokohama, Japan
State of Tennessee and The Tennessee Valley Authority
State of Oregon and Portland General Electric
Nissan will supply vehicles to the state
State and PGE will create an EV charging network
PGE has installed six charging stations to date
Oregon Governor is proposing a $5,000 tax credit to anyone who buys zero-emission vehicle
Principality of Monaco
Mitsubishi has developed a plug-in electric vehicle using a lithium-ion battery and plans to sell approximately 2,000 electric vehicles in Japan this year. Japanese incentives for electric vehicles are close $16,000 dollars off the retail price according to Mitsubishi Research and Design. In addition, Japan offers reductions in road-tax and registration fees for electric vehicles. These incentives have made vehicle costs a non-issue for Mitsubishi and have allowed the company to fast-track the development of its EV division and also compete price-wise against standard vehicles.
BYD Auto is emerging as one of the leaders in plug-in electric vehicles. The company has already begun selling plug-in electric vehicles in China and plans to introduce their cars to the European and U.S. markets in 2010. The vehicle being produced now is based upon a lithium-ion battery and has a range of 50 to 60 miles before a recharge is needed. In contrast to the major U.S. manufacturers, BYD’s primary experience is in developing electric batteries for vehicles. BYD has invested significantly in time and money for researching and developing plug-in electric vehicles, and its wealth of experience in developing lithium-ion batteries is a tremendous asset. BYD appears poised to be one of the leading global manufacturers of plug-in electric vehicles.
Honda continues to pursue a different course in the electrical vehicle industry and is largely eschewing the plug-in electric market. Honda is seeking to further develop its line of hybrid vehicles with a specific focus on reducing the price of the vehicle to customers. Honda has also devoted considerable resources towards producing a hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle.
Conclusions
The major manufacturers are also facing increasing competition from smaller start-up companies that exclusively manufacture and produce plug-in electric vehicles. The variety and intensity of competition in the plug-in electric vehicle industry is a strong signal that plug-in vehicles will soon be available for mass consumption. U.S. car manufacturers continue to remain behind the competition, although the U.S. energy-storage technology sector continues to develop. Foreign manufacturers in China and Japan have made significant headway towards offering plug-in electric vehicles for mass consumption and appear poised to deliver within the next two years.
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