ROADMAP 2050

A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe

Project
KEMA was responsible for the definition, quantification and cost projection of the electricity grid implications that would arise from various power-sector scenarios to enable a decarbonized power system for the EU-27+ (EU25, with Norway and Switzerland). The cost and grid implications of decarbonization with varying penetration of intermittent and non-intermittent renewables were estimated using a bespoke model developed with Imperial College London. The EU-27+ countries were divided into nine regions that represented a view of the new renewable resource concentrations within the pre-existing European Climate Foundation (ECF) scenarios, including a nine-node network providing interconnections. Demand profiles were created from historic data, modified to represent 2050 demand. Regional supply curves for renewable sources were created from real data, modified to represent the generation capacity and energy yields depicted in the pathway scenario, while considering improvements in technology. The project modelled the year 2050 on an hour-by-hour basis. It assessed generation adequacy, while minimizing operating costs to find the overall lowest cost for 2050. The model simulated real-time system operations and calculated optimum system reserve requirements, renewable curtailment, storage usage, transmission interconnection utilization, technology load factors, and demand-side management utilization.

Objectives
The mission of ROADMAP 2050 was to provide a practical, independent and objective analysis of pathways to achieve a low-carbon economy in Europe, in line with the energy security, environmental and economic goals of the European Union.

Benefits
> Assessed the impact of integrating large volumes of variable renewable production at an hour-by-hour granularity on the pan-European power system
> Explored the drivers of a secure and robust integration, e.g., investments in transmission, flexibility in demand, and importance of energy saving to make the task easier
> Developed policy conclusions from the technical analysis on steps that would be necessary to meet this 2050 vision

KEMA established a cost methodology, which determined of the likely transmission investment required to support the differing generation scenarios, including estimates of offshore networks costs and integration of offshore wind farms. Further analysis was carried out to determine the likely cost of the connection and integration to provide 15% of EU-27+ energy from North African solar resources.

Client
> European Climate Foundation

Project partners
> KEMA, the Netherlands
> Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
> McKinsey and Co, United Kingdom
> Oxford Economics, United Kingdom
> ECN, the Netherlands

Project details
> October 2009 - March 2010