Network managers must be able to show how their investments contribute to a reliable energy supply. KEMA has a system ready that compares the risks inherent in various scenarios. This results in the determination of the most efficient approach.

The current method of network design, in which a component can fail without endangering the power supply, is not satisfactory in the new situation. Due to liberalization and the rise of decentralized power generation, there are an increasing number of factors to be considered. Because there are so many factors that can influence the reliability of the power supply, it is uncertain whether the worst imaginable scenarios are, in reality, the worst possible scenarios. It may also be that there are unusual but very significant events have not been considered.

Manageable risks

If a network manager is to meet its responsibilities, it can benefit from the use of a probabilistic approach. This kind of approach provides advance insight into all risks and therefore makes them manageable. Such probability calculations can also lead to significant cost savings through the postponement of investments. After years of research, KEMA now has a method available that network managers can put to immediate use. All conceivable variables can be fed into the numerical model in order to generate scenarios. The cost of the scenarios can be calculated, allowing the selection of the most efficient solution. A number of pilot projects will establish the feasibility of the method.