Agent-based modeling for fas market and gas business

Agent-based models (ABM) are powerful tools for assessing complex systems, such as the gas industry and gas markets. Along this line, KEMA has developed a model to assess shipping transport behavior in the liberalized gas market.

An agent-based model (ABM) is a type of simulation model that is populated with a group of autonomous institutions/actors, called agents, each having a certain role and behavior.Agent-based models can cope with complex socio-technical systems and also address interactions between agents. Within these models, the simultaneous operations and interactions of multiple agents are simulated to re-create and predict complex and emergent phenomena in gas markets and within the industry and their effects on the system as a whole.

The simulation model is a tool used to understand the combined behavior of the various agents functioning along the gas value chain. Institutions that are taken into account, and thus modeled as agents, include upstream producers, midstream shippers, transport companies, and the downstream market segments; each of these agents exhibit a predetermined type of behavior. Specific attention is paid to the behaviors of transport shippers and the processes by which they make decisions about transport capacity reservations.

Furthermore, shippers can learn from previous actions, leading to revised decision-making and increased economic effectiveness. Shipper behavior in a dynamic liberalized gas market is driven by trading, contractual obligations, and system requirements. Under KEMA’s ABM, these systems are analyzed in detail.

Objectives
 Liberalization has made the gas industry and gas markets more complex and more dynamic. As a result, models need to provide a clear picture of the complex processes involved in this dynamic environment. In order to serve shippers and gas markets, as envisaged by European legislation, it is necessary to acquire in-depth knowledge about the interactions and dynamics of these agents. Benefits Gaining in-depth knowledge of liberalized gas markets is required so that transport system operators and others may optimize gas industry services and their investments. Use of agent-based models contributes to this understanding.

Client
> Gasunie – Gas Transport Services, the Netherlands

Project coordinator

> KEMA, the Netherlands